QPR 1-3 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates QPR at 39%, yet in-form Sheffield Utd provide a compelling counter-argument — this QPR vs Sheffield Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium plays host to QPR versus Sheffield Utd in Championship, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off: Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
QPR's home record at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — QPR are significantly better at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sheffield Utd's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sheffield Utd are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: QPR 0W, Sheffield Utd 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Sheffield Utd winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Sheffield Utd half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 57% versus Sheffield Utd 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 52% | Sheffield Utd 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.09 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.892 / defence 1.147 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.711 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.134. Data: 44 QPR games / 44 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 39% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 31%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Sheffield Utd 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sheffield Utd (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: QPR 50% | Sheffield Utd 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 39% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG QPR 1.09 / Sheffield Utd 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.892 / def 1.147 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.711 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: QPR (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sheffield Utd xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
QPR vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
QPR 1 - 3 Sheffield Utd.
Where is QPR vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Sheffield Utd part of?
QPR vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 39% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both QPR and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sheffield Utd?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 0 | Sheffield Utd 1W.
What form are QPR and Sheffield Utd in?
QPR (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sheffield Utd's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sheffield Utd's attack (0.71x) against QPR's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.27
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
QPR xG
Total xG
2.01
0.93
Sheffield Utd xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are QPR and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for QPR and 0.93 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
QPR's recent record stands at 18W 9D 17L from 44 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 13L across 44 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for QPR against 1.57 for Sheffield Utd. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, QPR have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.27 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 19W 12D 13L in their last 44 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Sheffield Utd away?
QPR's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.64 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.27 PPG.
Have QPR or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
4
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sheffield Utd?
From 8 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Sheffield Utd have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when QPR 0-2 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 46%, Sheffield Utd 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (QPR) and 41% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sheffield Utd in 32%; Sheffield Utd in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of QPR's recent matches and 46% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of QPR's recent games and 41% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Utd cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat QPR 1-3 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.09 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.93 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sheffield Utd outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 39% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 31%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sheffield Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Sheffield Utd 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.43 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.