Peterborough 0-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 44 as Peterborough welcome Nottingham Forest to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Peterborough have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 1W 3D 6L at Weston Homes Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Weston Homes Stadium this season.
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Championship this season, Nottingham Forest have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Nottingham Forest's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Peterborough's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Nottingham Forest in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 46% versus Nottingham Forest 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 58% | Nottingham Forest 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 0.79 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.802 / defence 1.611 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.021 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.128. Data: 43 Peterborough games / 41 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 15% | Draw 22% | Nottingham Forest 63%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 6.67 | Draw 4.55 | Nottingham Forest 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Nottingham Forest (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 50% | Nottingham Forest 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 15% | Draw 22% | Nottingham Forest 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Peterborough 0.79 / Nottingham Forest 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.802 / def 1.611 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.021 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Nottingham Forest xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest?
Peterborough 0 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 15% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 63% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Peterborough and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Nottingham Forest?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Nottingham Forest in?
Peterborough (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 0.80x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
15%
6.52
22%
4.55
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.64
1.86
Nottingham Forest xG
6.52
15%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
2%
41.74
29%
3.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.86 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Peterborough come into this having played 41 games, going 7W 10D 24L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Nottingham Forest sit at 1.71 PPG from 41 outings (20W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Nottingham Forest carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Peterborough's home form reads 4W 6D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Nottingham Forest have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.59 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 7W 10D 24L in their last 41 games (0.76 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 20W 10D 11L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Nottingham Forest's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 0.95 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Nottingham Forest?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Peterborough 0-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 47%, Nottingham Forest 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Peterborough) and 37% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest in 32%; Peterborough have failed to score in 47% of games; Nottingham Forest in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Peterborough's recent matches and 53% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Peterborough's recent games and 37% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out Peterborough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 0.79 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.86 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.80 / defence 1.61 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 15% | Draw 22% | Nottingham Forest 63%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 58%, Nottingham Forest 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.