Swansea 1-1 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 42%, yet in-form Swansea provide a compelling counter-argument — this Swansea vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Middlesbrough make the trip to Swansea.com Stadium to face Swansea in Championship, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Swansea.com Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Middlesbrough have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Middlesbrough away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Swansea's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Swansea lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Middlesbrough winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Middlesbrough — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 45% versus Middlesbrough 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | Middlesbrough 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.12 xG and Middlesbrough 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.948 / defence 1.254 | Middlesbrough attack 0.948 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.128. Data: 42 Swansea games / 42 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 42%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Middlesbrough 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Swansea (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 60% | Middlesbrough 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Swansea 1.12 / Middlesbrough 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.948 / def 1.254 | Middlesbrough attack 0.948 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Middlesbrough xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Swansea vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Middlesbrough?
Swansea 1 - 1 Middlesbrough.
Where is Swansea vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Middlesbrough part of?
Swansea vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 31% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Swansea and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Middlesbrough?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Middlesbrough 1W.
What form are Swansea and Middlesbrough in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Middlesbrough (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.95x the league average against Middlesbrough's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (0.95x) against Swansea's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
31%
3.21
27%
3.70
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.46
1.34
Middlesbrough xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Swansea and 1.34 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 11D 15L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Middlesbrough's form line: 18W 9D 15L from 42 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Swansea against 1.50 for Middlesbrough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L).
On the road, Middlesbrough have gone 6W 6D 8L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Swansea are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.24 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Middlesbrough in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Middlesbrough away?
Swansea's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.65 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Swansea or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Swansea
2
Draws
7
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Middlesbrough?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 1, Middlesbrough have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Swansea 2-2 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Swansea see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Middlesbrough see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 50%, Middlesbrough 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swansea) and 40% (Middlesbrough).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Middlesbrough in 40%; Middlesbrough in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Swansea's recent matches and 40% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Swansea's recent games and 40% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Swansea and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Swansea and Middlesbrough drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.12 xG and Middlesbrough 1.34 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.95 / defence 1.25 against Middlesbrough attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 31% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 42%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Middlesbrough 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.40 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.