Stoke City 0-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 25 as Stoke City welcome Burnley to bet365 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Burnley's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Stoke City's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stoke City, 0 for Burnley and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stoke City in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 48% versus Burnley 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 44% | Burnley 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.35 xG and Burnley 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.983 / defence 1.193 | Burnley attack 1.270 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.177. Burnley have an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Stoke City games / 24 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 29% | Draw 23% | Burnley 48%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Burnley 2.08. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 50% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 29% | Draw 23% | Burnley 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Stoke City 1.35 / Burnley 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.983 / def 1.193 | Burnley attack 1.270 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Burnley (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Burnley xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Burnley kick off?
Stoke City vs Burnley kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 December 2022 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Burnley?
Stoke City 0 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Stoke City vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Burnley part of?
Stoke City vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 29% chance of winning, Burnley a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stoke City and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Stoke City 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Stoke City and Burnley in?
Stoke City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Burnley (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stoke City's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
29%
3.43
23%
4.32
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Stoke City xG
Total xG
3.13
1.78
Burnley xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
5%
20.38
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.78 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 15D 26L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley's form line: 21W 22D 19L from 62 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.26 PPG, Burnley on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 7W 12D 11L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.34 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Burnley in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 21W 15D 26L in their last 62 games (1.26 PPG), while Burnley have gone 21W 22D 19L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Burnley away?
Stoke City's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.23 PPG; Burnley away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Burnley in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stoke City's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stoke City
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2025, when Burnley 0-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 40%, Burnley 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stoke City) and 37% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 30% of games; Burnley in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stoke City's recent matches and 57% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stoke City's recent games and 37% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Burnley tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Burnley in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Stoke City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Stoke City 0-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.35 xG and Burnley 1.78 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.98 / defence 1.19 against Burnley attack 1.27 / defence 1.11, drawn from 70/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 29% | Draw 23% | Burnley 48%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 44%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.26 PPG, Burnley 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.