Swansea 1-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 42%, yet in-form Burnley provide a compelling counter-argument — this Swansea vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Swansea.com Stadium to face Swansea in Championship, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 2 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 6W 1D 3L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Swansea are significantly better at Swansea.com Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Burnley are 1.60 PPG clear of Swansea in recent Championship fixtures (2.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Swansea lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–4 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Burnley — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 49% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 54% | Burnley 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.56 xG and Burnley 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.240 / defence 0.971 | Burnley attack 1.211 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.155. Burnley have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Swansea games / 25 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 42% | Draw 25% | Burnley 33%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Burnley 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burnley (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 30% | Burnley 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 42% | Draw 25% | Burnley 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Swansea 1.56 / Burnley 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.240 / def 0.971 | Burnley attack 1.211 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Swansea (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Burnley xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Burnley kick off?
Swansea vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 2 January 2023 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Burnley?
Swansea 1 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Swansea vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Burnley part of?
Swansea vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 42% chance of winning, Burnley a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Swansea and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Swansea and Burnley in?
Swansea (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Swansea's attack at 1.24x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.21x) against Swansea's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 71/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.07
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.91
1.36
Burnley xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Swansea and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Swansea and 1.36 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea's recent record stands at 24W 17D 22L from 63 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 22W 22D 19L across 63 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Swansea against 1.40 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 15W 7D 9L from 31 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 8W 12D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Burnley in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 24W 17D 22L in their last 63 games (1.41 PPG), while Burnley have gone 22W 22D 19L in their last 63 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Burnley away?
Swansea's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.68 PPG; Burnley away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Swansea
0
Draws
4
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Burnley have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Swansea 0-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 48%, Burnley 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Swansea) and 36% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Swansea's recent matches and 55% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Swansea's recent games and 36% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Burnley tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Burnley in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Swansea 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Swansea 1-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.56 xG and Burnley 1.36 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.24 / defence 0.97 against Burnley attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 42% | Draw 25% | Burnley 33%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 54%, Burnley 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.41 PPG, Burnley 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.