Burnley 3-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Turf Moor plays host to Burnley versus Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Birmingham have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Burnley's favour (2.50 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Burnley 0W, Birmingham 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 54% versus Birmingham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Birmingham 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.47 xG and Birmingham 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.361 / defence 0.930 | Birmingham attack 0.854 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.174. Burnley carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Burnley games / 69 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 50% | Draw 26% | Birmingham 24%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Birmingham 4.17. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 60% | Birmingham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 50% | Draw 26% | Birmingham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Burnley 1.47 / Birmingham 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.361 / def 0.930 | Birmingham attack 0.854 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Burnley (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Birmingham xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Birmingham kick off?
Burnley vs Birmingham kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Birmingham?
Burnley 3 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Burnley vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Birmingham part of?
Burnley vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 50% chance of winning, Birmingham a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Burnley and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Birmingham?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Burnley and Birmingham in?
Burnley (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Birmingham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (1.36) and Birmingham's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.85x) against Burnley's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 23/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.79
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.41
0.93
Birmingham xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
5%
18.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Burnley and 0.93 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 22D 19L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.11 PPG from 61 outings (16W 20D 25L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Burnley against 1.11 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burnley's home form reads 13W 10D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 0.93 points per game from 30 outings (6W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.08 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 20W 22D 19L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 16W 20D 25L in their last 61 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Birmingham away?
Burnley's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.63 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Birmingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Birmingham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Burnley 3-0 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Birmingham?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Birmingham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Burnley) and 40% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 27% of games; Birmingham in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 47% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Burnley's recent games and 40% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Birmingham tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Birmingham 3-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.47 xG and Birmingham 0.93 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Birmingham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against Birmingham attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 50% | Draw 26% | Birmingham 24%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Birmingham 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Birmingham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.34 PPG, Birmingham 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.