Southampton 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Southampton at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Southampton vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Southampton and Derby meet at St. Mary's Stadium in Championship (matchday 42). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Southampton's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Southampton have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Derby (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Southampton. A 0.80 PPG lead over Derby (2.60 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Southampton 1–1 Derby — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Southampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Southampton 63% versus Derby 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Southampton 59% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Southampton 1.57 xG and Derby 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Southampton attack 1.138 / defence 0.750 | Derby attack 1.156 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.187. Southampton have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling Derby's projected output down. Data: built from Southampton's last 40 games and Derby's last 87.
Result probabilities: Southampton 48% | Draw 29% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Southampton 2.08 | Draw 3.43 | Derby 4.38. Southampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Southampton as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Southampton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Southampton 40% (last 10 home games) | Derby 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Southampton vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: St. Mary's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Southampton 48% | Draw 29% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Southampton 1.57 / Derby 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Southampton attack 1.138 / def 0.750 | Derby attack 1.156 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Southampton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Southampton xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Derby xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Southampton vs Derby FAQs
What time does Southampton vs Derby kick off?
Southampton vs Derby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium.
What was the final score in Southampton vs Derby?
Southampton 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Southampton vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at St. Mary's Stadium.
What competition is Southampton vs Derby part of?
Southampton vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Southampton vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Southampton a 48% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Southampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Southampton and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Southampton vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Southampton's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.16x) against Southampton's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Southampton's last 40 games and Derby's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Southampton Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.43
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Southampton xG
Total xG
2.60
1.03
Derby xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
5%
21.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Southampton vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Southampton vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Southampton and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Southampton and 1.03 for Derby, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Southampton vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Southampton's recent record stands at 20W 18D 40L from 78 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 27W 20D 31L across 78 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Southampton against 1.29 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Southampton have managed 11W 9D 18L from their last 38 home games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 13W 8D 17L across their last 38 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Southampton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.23 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Southampton have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Southampton
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Southampton (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Southampton
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Southampton vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Southampton and Derby in coming into this match?
Southampton have gone 20W 18D 40L in their last 78 games (1.00 PPG), while Derby have gone 27W 20D 31L in their last 78 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Southampton at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Southampton at home: 1.11 PPG; Derby away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Southampton
1
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Southampton vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Derby?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Southampton have won 1, Derby have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Southampton and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Southampton 2-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Southampton and Derby?
Southampton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Southampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Southampton 50%, Derby 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Southampton) and 55% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Southampton have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Southampton home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Southampton vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Southampton and Derby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Southampton's games and 60% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Southampton and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Southampton's matches and 55% of Derby's.
Do Southampton and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Southampton's recent matches and 68% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Southampton edge out Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Southampton beat Derby 2-1 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.57 xG and Derby 1.03 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 1.14 / defence 0.75 against Derby attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Southampton 48% | Draw 29% | Derby 23%, with Southampton to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 59%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Southampton's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Southampton 1.00 PPG, Derby 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Southampton win broke the near-deadlock. Southampton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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