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Poisson model rates Derby at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Stoke City make the trip to Pride Park to face Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 41. The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Derby (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Derby's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Pride Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Stoke City's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Stoke City have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Derby, 1.20 for Stoke City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Derby 2W, Stoke City 2W, 1D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Stoke City winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Derby — key trading statistics (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Stoke City — key trading statistics (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus Stoke City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Stoke City 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.34 xG and Stoke City 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.999 / defence 0.956 | Stoke City attack 0.718 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.206. Data: 86 Derby games / 86 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 22%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Stoke City 4.55. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 70% | Stoke City 30%.

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