🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Derby at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Oxford United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Oxford United travel to Pride Park to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Derby — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Derby's home record at Pride Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.

Across all Championship games this season, Oxford United have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Oxford United's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.50 PPG, Oxford United 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Oxford United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Derby, 2 for Oxford United and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Oxford United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Derby in-play tendencies (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).

Oxford United in-play tendencies (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 54% versus Oxford United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Oxford United 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.43 xG and Oxford United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.056 / defence 0.924 | Oxford United attack 0.930 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.164. Data: 88 Derby games / 88 Oxford United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Oxford United 25%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Oxford United 4.00. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 60% | Oxford United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights