🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Charlton take on Preston.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Charlton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 3W 2D 5L at The Valley — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Preston's overall Championship record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Preston's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Charlton 0W, Preston 1W, 0D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Preston winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 46% versus Preston 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Preston 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.00 xG and Preston 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.679 / defence 1.042 | Preston attack 0.844 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.187. Charlton's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Charlton games / 87 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 31% | Draw 35% | Preston 34%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Preston 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 40% | Preston 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights