Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charlton travel to Hillsborough to take on Sheffield Wednesday in Championship (matchday 43). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sheffield Wednesday — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Sheffield Wednesday, 1 for Charlton and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Charlton — a Charlton win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sheffield Wednesday trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Charlton trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 50% versus Charlton 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 52% | Charlton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 0.84 xG and Charlton 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.628 / defence 1.330 | Charlton attack 0.853 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.150. Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from Sheffield Wednesday's last 88 games and Charlton's last 42.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 22% | Draw 32% | Charlton 46%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 4.47 | Draw 3.14 | Charlton 2.18. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sheffield Wednesday's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sheffield Wednesday 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, matchday 43 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 22% | Draw 32% | Charlton 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sheffield Wednesday 0.84 / Charlton 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.628 / def 1.330 | Charlton attack 0.853 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Charlton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Charlton xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton is a Championship fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 22% chance of winning, Charlton a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday's attack at 0.63x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Wednesday's last 88 games and Charlton's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
22%
4.47
32%
3.14
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.14
1.30
Charlton xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
6%
16.48
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.3 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.30 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 16W 24D 48L from 88 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 36W 24D 28L across 88 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sheffield Wednesday heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 6W 14D 24L from their last 44 home games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 13W 14D 17L across their last 44 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.18 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 24D 48L in their last 88 games (0.82 PPG), while Charlton have gone 36W 24D 28L in their last 88 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 0.73 PPG; Charlton away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Charlton in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sheffield Wednesday
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 50%, Charlton 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 43% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 32%; Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 43% of games; Charlton in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 43% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 43% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 48% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 43, as Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 0.84 xG and Charlton 1.30 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.63 / defence 1.33 against Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 88/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 22% | Draw 32% | Charlton 46%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 52%, Charlton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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