Charlton 1-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charlton and Ipswich meet at The Valley in Championship, Regular Season - 44. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall Championship record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ipswich have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ipswich's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ipswich are 0.90 PPG clear of Charlton in recent Championship fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charlton lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 46% versus Ipswich 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 45% | Ipswich 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.99 xG and Ipswich 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.679 / defence 1.097 | Ipswich attack 1.193 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.182. Charlton's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Charlton games / 42 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 23% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 49%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Ipswich 2.04. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 40% | Ipswich 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 23% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Charlton 0.99 / Ipswich 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.679 / def 1.097 | Ipswich attack 1.193 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Ipswich xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Ipswich kick off?
Charlton vs Ipswich kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Ipswich?
Charlton 1 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Charlton vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Ipswich part of?
Charlton vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 23% chance of winning, Ipswich a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charlton and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Ipswich?
Record (5 meetings): Charlton 2W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 2W.
What form are Charlton and Ipswich in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.68) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.19x) against Charlton's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
23%
4.39
29%
3.50
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.54
1.55
Ipswich xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
5%
20.64
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Charlton and 1.55 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton's recent record stands at 34W 22D 24L from 80 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 25W 23D 32L across 80 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Charlton against 1.23 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 22W 7D 10L from 39 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 11W 11D 17L across 39 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.36 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 34W 22D 24L in their last 80 games (1.55 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 25W 23D 32L in their last 80 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Ipswich away?
Charlton's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.87 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Charlton or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ipswich in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Ipswich?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 46%, Ipswich 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charlton) and 54% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Charlton's games and 64% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charlton's recent games and 54% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Ipswich tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.99 xG and Ipswich 1.55 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.68 / defence 1.10 against Ipswich attack 1.19 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 23% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 49%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 45%, Ipswich 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Ipswich's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.55 PPG, Ipswich 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.