Sheffield Utd 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sheffield Utd (74%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sheffield Utd face Sheffield Wednesday.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday make the trip to Bramall Lane to face Sheffield Utd in Championship (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sheffield Utd's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 0.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sheffield Wednesday away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Sheffield Utd's 1.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Sheffield Wednesday's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sheffield Utd have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Sheffield Wednesday managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Sheffield Utd 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday — a Sheffield Utd win.
The head-to-head data gives Sheffield Utd an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sheffield Wednesday goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 41% versus Sheffield Wednesday 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 46% | Sheffield Wednesday 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 2.37 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 1.308 / defence 0.916 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.618 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.188. Sheffield Utd carry an above-average attack rating of 1.308 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating of 1.389 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sheffield Utd's projected output up. Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating of 0.618 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from Sheffield Utd's last 78 games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 78.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 74% | Draw 17% | Sheffield Wednesday 8%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 1.34 | Draw 5.72 | Sheffield Wednesday 12.44. The model has a clear lean to Sheffield Utd (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sheffield Utd's last 10 home games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sheffield Utd 60% (last 10 home games) | Sheffield Wednesday 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: Championship, matchday 33 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 74% | Draw 17% | Sheffield Wednesday 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Sheffield Utd 2.37 / Sheffield Wednesday 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 1.308 / def 0.916 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.618 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Sheffield Wednesday xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday FAQs
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Utd 2 - 1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Championship fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 74% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 1.31x the league average against Sheffield Wednesday's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (0.62x) against Sheffield Utd's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Utd's last 78 games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
74%
1.34
17%
5.72
8%
12.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
3.04
0.67
Sheffield Wednesday xG
1.34
74%
Home win
5.72
17%
Draw
12.44
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
9%
10.68
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
1%
132.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 0.67 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sheffield Utd come into this having played 78 games, going 42W 9D 27L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sheffield Wednesday sit at 0.88 PPG from 78 outings (16W 21D 41L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Sheffield Utd carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sheffield Utd's home form reads 22W 5D 11L across their last 38 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Sheffield Wednesday have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 38 away games (10W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.01 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Sheffield Utd (Home) vs Sheffield Wednesday (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 42W 9D 27L in their last 78 games (1.73 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 21D 41L in their last 78 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.87 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Sheffield Utd or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sheffield Utd have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Utd won Sheffield Wednesday 0-3 Sheffield Utd on 23 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
0
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Utd have won 4, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Sheffield Utd 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 42%, Sheffield Wednesday 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sheffield Utd) and 63% (Sheffield Wednesday). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 50% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 63% of Sheffield Wednesday's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Sheffield Wednesday matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 74% of Sheffield Wednesday's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Sheffield Wednesday 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 2.37 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.67 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 1.31 / defence 0.92 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.62 / defence 1.39, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 74% | Draw 17% | Sheffield Wednesday 8%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 46%, Sheffield Wednesday 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 33
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →