QPR 0-2 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Stoke City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Stoke City travel to Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium to take on QPR. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's home record at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Stoke City have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
QPR carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
QPR in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Stoke City in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 65% versus Stoke City 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 55% | Stoke City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.30 xG and Stoke City 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.117 / defence 0.948 | Stoke City attack 0.760 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.082. Data: 20 QPR games / 20 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 47% | Draw 32% | Stoke City 21%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Stoke City 4.76. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: QPR 50% | Stoke City 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 47% | Draw 32% | Stoke City 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG QPR 1.30 / Stoke City 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.117 / def 0.948 | Stoke City attack 0.760 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: QPR (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Stoke City xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Stoke City kick off?
QPR vs Stoke City kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Stoke City?
QPR 0 - 2 Stoke City.
Where is QPR vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Stoke City part of?
QPR vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 47% chance of winning, Stoke City a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both QPR and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Stoke City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are QPR and Stoke City in?
QPR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Stoke City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.12x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
47%
2.11
32%
3.16
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
QPR xG
Total xG
2.08
0.78
Stoke City xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
6%
17.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are QPR and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for QPR and 0.78 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR come into this having played 20 games, going 10W 5D 5L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.75 PPG, Stoke City on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
QPR's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stoke City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.20 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: QPR have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Stoke City in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Stoke City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Stoke City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Stoke City away?
QPR's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 2.10 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.10 PPG.
Have QPR or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stoke City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
QPR's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
QPR
3
Draws
4
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Stoke City?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Stoke City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Stoke City 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 50%, Stoke City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (QPR) and 50% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Stoke City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of QPR's recent matches and 50% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of QPR's recent games and 50% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Stoke City tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stoke City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat QPR 0-2 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.30 xG and Stoke City 0.78 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. QPR fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Stoke City outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Stoke City attack 0.76 / defence 1.14, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 47% | Draw 32% | Stoke City 21%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Stoke City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 55%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Stoke City's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.75 PPG, Stoke City 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.