Stoke City 0-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stoke City and Blackburn meet at bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Stoke City (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stoke City have posted 6W 2D 1L at bet365 Stadium — 2.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stoke City are significantly better at bet365 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Blackburn have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's away record: 2W 4D 3L from 9 road trips in Championship this season (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Stoke City against 1.40 for Blackburn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Stoke City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 47% versus Blackburn 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 42% | Blackburn 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.38 xG and Blackburn 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.088 / defence 1.112 | Blackburn attack 0.888 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.055. Blackburn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Stoke City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Stoke City games / 19 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 43% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 26%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Blackburn 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stoke City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 44% | Blackburn 78% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 43% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Stoke City 1.38 / Blackburn 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.088 / def 1.112 | Blackburn attack 0.888 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Blackburn xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Blackburn kick off?
Stoke City vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Stoke City 0 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Stoke City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Blackburn part of?
Stoke City vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 43% chance of winning, Blackburn a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stoke City and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Blackburn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stoke City and Blackburn in?
Stoke City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (1.09) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.89x) against Stoke City's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.21
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Blackburn xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.04 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 9W 4D 6L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn's form line: 8W 6D 5L from 19 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Stoke City against 1.58 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Stoke City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Blackburn have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackburn's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stoke City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stoke City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.74 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Blackburn in 68%.
Defensively: Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Blackburn away?
Stoke City's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 2.22 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Blackburn in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won 0-3 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Stoke City
2
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 5, Blackburn have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Stoke City 1-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Blackburn?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 44%, Blackburn 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stoke City) and 44% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Blackburn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Stoke City's games and 78% of Blackburn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stoke City vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stoke City's recent games and 44% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Blackburn defy the odds to beat Stoke City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Stoke City 0-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.38 xG and Blackburn 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Blackburn attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 43% | Draw 31% | Blackburn 26%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Blackburn 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackburn's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.63 PPG, Blackburn 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.