Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Middlesbrough vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Middlesbrough and Swansea meet at Riverside Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Middlesbrough (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough at Riverside Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Swansea have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.70 for Swansea. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Middlesbrough have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Swansea in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 50% versus Swansea 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 30% | Swansea 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.32 xG and Swansea 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 0.934 / defence 1.273 | Swansea attack 0.905 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.082. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing Middlesbrough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Middlesbrough games / 20 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 37% | Draw 30% | Swansea 33%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Swansea 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Middlesbrough at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 60% | Swansea 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 37% | Draw 30% | Swansea 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Middlesbrough 1.32 / Swansea 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 0.934 / def 1.273 | Swansea attack 0.905 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Swansea xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Swansea kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Swansea part of?
Middlesbrough vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 37% chance of winning, Swansea a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Middlesbrough and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Middlesbrough and Swansea in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Swansea (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Middlesbrough's attack rating (0.93) and Swansea's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.91x) against Middlesbrough's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.32
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.56
1.25
Swansea xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.25 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Middlesbrough come into this having played 20 games, going 7W 5D 8L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.35 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Middlesbrough's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Swansea in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Swansea have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Swansea away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.40 PPG; Swansea away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Swansea in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Middlesbrough
2
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 7, Swansea have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Swansea 2-2 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Swansea?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 60%, Swansea 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Middlesbrough) and 70% (Swansea). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Middlesbrough's games and 60% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Middlesbrough vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Middlesbrough's matches and 70% of Swansea's.
Do Middlesbrough and Swansea tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Swansea in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Swansea 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Swansea 1-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.32 xG and Swansea 1.25 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swansea landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against Swansea attack 0.91 / defence 1.39, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 37% | Draw 30% | Swansea 33%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 30%, Swansea 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Swansea's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.30 PPG, Swansea 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.