Bristol City 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Bristol City take on Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 21 as Bristol City welcome Derby to Ashton Gate. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Bristol City have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bristol City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ashton Gate, Bristol City have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bristol City 1.00 PPG, Derby 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Bristol City in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol City 60% versus Derby 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol City 50% | Derby 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol City 0.80 xG and Derby 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol City attack 0.812 / defence 1.075 | Derby attack 0.599 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.082. Data: 20 Bristol City games / 20 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bristol City 33% | Draw 40% | Derby 27%. Fair-value odds: Bristol City 3.03 | Draw 2.50 | Derby 3.70. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Derby's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.50 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bristol City 60% | Derby 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol City vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ashton Gate • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol City 33% | Draw 40% | Derby 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 29% | xG Bristol City 0.80 / Derby 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol City attack 0.812 / def 1.075 | Derby attack 0.599 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Bristol City xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Derby xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bristol City vs Derby kick off?
Bristol City vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Ashton Gate.
What was the final score in Bristol City vs Derby?
Bristol City 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Bristol City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Ashton Gate.
What competition is Bristol City vs Derby part of?
Bristol City vs Derby is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Bristol City a 33% chance of winning, Derby a 27% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Bristol City and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Bristol City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bristol City and Derby in?
Bristol City (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Derby (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bristol City's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Bristol City's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
40%
2.49
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Bristol City xG
Total xG
1.50
0.70
Derby xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.40
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.3 | 15.5 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.0%.
How many goals are Bristol City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Bristol City and 0.70 for Derby, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol City vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bristol City come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 5D 9L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Bristol City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (4W 10D 6L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bristol City on 1.15 PPG, Derby on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bristol City's home form reads 2W 5D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (1W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Bristol City are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.85 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bristol City have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Derby in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol City
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bristol City and Derby in coming into this match?
Bristol City have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Derby have gone 4W 10D 6L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol City at home or Derby away?
Bristol City's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol City at home: 1.10 PPG; Derby away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Bristol City or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bristol City have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Derby in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bristol City and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jan 2026, when Derby won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bristol City's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bristol City
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Bristol City have won 3, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bristol City and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bristol City 0-5 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Bristol City and Derby?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derby see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol City 60%, Derby 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Bristol City and 20% for Derby.
On the defensive side: Derby in 40%; Bristol City have failed to score in 30% of games; Derby in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bristol City play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bristol City's recent matches and 40% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bristol City vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Bristol City's recent games and 20% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol City and Derby tend to score early?
Bristol City have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derby in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol City beat Derby 1-0 at Ashton Gate, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 0.80 xG and Derby 0.70 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Derby attack 0.60 / defence 0.98, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol City 33% | Draw 40% | Derby 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bristol City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 50%, Derby 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol City's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.15 PPG, Derby 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.