QPR 0-2 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Sheffield Utd.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Sheffield Utd in Championship (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
QPR's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — QPR are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sheffield Utd's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sheffield Utd have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for QPR, 1.60 for Sheffield Utd — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Sheffield Utd edge it 3 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended QPR 0–0 Sheffield Utd — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Sheffield Utd half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 33 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 64% versus Sheffield Utd 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 58% | Sheffield Utd 48%). Note also that Sheffield Utd surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while QPR recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.79 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.230 / defence 1.274 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.988 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.188. QPR's defence rating of 1.274 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sheffield Utd's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 80 games and Sheffield Utd's last 80.
Result probabilities: QPR 44% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Utd 31%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.29 | Draw 3.97 | Sheffield Utd 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (QPR's last 10 home games and Sheffield Utd's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 90% (last 10 home games) | Sheffield Utd 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, matchday 35 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 44% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Utd 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG QPR 1.79 / Sheffield Utd 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.230 / def 1.274 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.988 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: QPR (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sheffield Utd xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Sheffield Utd FAQs
What time does QPR vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
QPR vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
QPR 0 - 2 Sheffield Utd.
Where is QPR vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Sheffield Utd part of?
QPR vs Sheffield Utd is a Championship fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 44% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both QPR and Sheffield Utd will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.23x the league average against Sheffield Utd's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sheffield Utd's attack (0.99x) against QPR's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 80 games and Sheffield Utd's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.97
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
QPR xG
Total xG
3.29
1.50
Sheffield Utd xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
5%
19.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Sheffield Utd Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are QPR and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for QPR and 1.50 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
QPR's recent record stands at 27W 22D 31L from 80 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 43W 9D 28L across 80 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sheffield Utd by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over QPR heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, QPR have managed 15W 10D 14L from their last 39 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 19W 4D 16L across their last 39 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.41 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Sheffield Utd (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Sheffield Utd Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 27W 22D 31L in their last 80 games (1.29 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 43W 9D 28L in their last 80 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Sheffield Utd's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.41 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.56 PPG.
Have QPR or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sheffield Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
4
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Sheffield Utd H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sheffield Utd?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 1, Sheffield Utd have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: QPR 0-2 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 74%, Sheffield Utd 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (QPR) and 46% (Sheffield Utd). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd in 33%; Sheffield Utd in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Sheffield Utd Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Sheffield Utd matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of QPR's games and 41% of Sheffield Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are QPR and Sheffield Utd matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of QPR's matches and 46% of Sheffield Utd's.
Do QPR and Sheffield Utd matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of QPR's recent matches and 62% of Sheffield Utd's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Utd cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat QPR 0-2 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.79 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.50 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. QPR fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.23 / defence 1.27 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 44% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Utd 31%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sheffield Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 58%, Sheffield Utd 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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