Portsmouth 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 35 as Portsmouth welcome Hull City to Fratton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Portsmouth — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Fratton Park, Portsmouth have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Hull City have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hull City — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Portsmouth have won 0, Hull City 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (79 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City in-play tendencies (79 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 54% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 54% | Hull City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.08 xG and Hull City 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.914 / defence 0.888 | Hull City attack 1.332 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.190. Hull City have an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 79 Portsmouth games / 79 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 27% | Draw 30% | Hull City 43%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Hull City 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 50% | Hull City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 27% | Draw 30% | Hull City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Portsmouth 1.08 / Hull City 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.914 / def 0.888 | Hull City attack 1.332 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Hull City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Hull City xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Hull City kick off?
Portsmouth vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Portsmouth vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Hull City part of?
Portsmouth vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 27% chance of winning, Hull City a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Portsmouth and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Hull City?
Record (3 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 2 | Hull City 1W.
What form are Portsmouth and Hull City in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.91) and Hull City's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.34
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.49
1.41
Hull City xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
15.08
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.41 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 79 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 24W 21D 34L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 29W 19D 31L from 79 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.18 PPG, Hull City on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Portsmouth have posted 1.61 PPG from 38 outings (17W 10D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hull City have gone 15W 8D 15L from 38 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.25 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Hull City in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 24W 21D 34L in their last 79 games (1.18 PPG), while Hull City have gone 29W 19D 31L in their last 79 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Hull City away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.61 PPG; Hull City away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and Hull City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hull City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Hull City?
From 4 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 0, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Portsmouth 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 53%, Hull City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Portsmouth) and 45% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Portsmouth have failed to score in 26% of games; Hull City in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 50% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Portsmouth's recent games and 45% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Hull City tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hull City in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Portsmouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.08 xG and Hull City 1.41 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Hull City attack 1.33 / defence 0.89, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 27% | Draw 30% | Hull City 43%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.18 PPG, Hull City 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.