Plymouth 3-2 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Plymouth at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Rotherham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Park plays host to Plymouth versus Rotherham in Championship, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plymouth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Rotherham's overall Championship record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rotherham have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Plymouth's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plymouth lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Rotherham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Rotherham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Rotherham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Rotherham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 2.63 xG and Rotherham 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.282 / defence 1.101 | Rotherham attack 0.576 / defence 1.493. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.197. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rotherham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.493 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Plymouth games / 67 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 77% | Draw 15% | Rotherham 8%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Rotherham 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 60% | Rotherham 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 77% | Draw 15% | Rotherham 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 50% | xG Plymouth 2.63 / Rotherham 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.282 / def 1.101 | Rotherham attack 0.576 / def 1.493 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Rotherham xG
50%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Rotherham kick off?
Plymouth vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Plymouth 3 - 2 Rotherham.
Where is Plymouth vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Rotherham part of?
Plymouth vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 77% chance of winning, Rotherham a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Plymouth and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Rotherham?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Rotherham 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Rotherham in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Rotherham (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.28) and Rotherham's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rotherham's attack (0.58x) against Plymouth's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 21/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
77%
1.30
15%
6.77
8%
12.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.39
0.76
Rotherham xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.77
15%
Draw
12.24
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
7%
13.90
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
170.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.76 for Rotherham, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth come into this having played 67 games, going 37W 13D 17L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 0.94 PPG from 67 outings (13W 24D 30L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Rotherham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Plymouth's home form reads 26W 2D 5L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 0.58 points per game from 33 outings (2W 13D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.00 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 37W 13D 17L in their last 67 games (1.85 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 13W 24D 30L in their last 67 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Rotherham away?
Plymouth's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.42 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Rotherham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rotherham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Rotherham?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 3, Rotherham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rotherham 1-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 48%, Rotherham 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plymouth) and 39% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Rotherham in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Plymouth's recent matches and 36% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Plymouth's recent games and 39% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Rotherham tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Rotherham 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Rotherham 3-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.63 xG and Rotherham 0.76 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rotherham outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.28 / defence 1.10 against Rotherham attack 0.58 / defence 1.49, drawn from 21/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 77% | Draw 15% | Rotherham 8%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Rotherham's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.