Portsmouth 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Portsmouth welcome Hull City to Fratton Park in Championship (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Portsmouth — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Portsmouth have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Hull City have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Hull City have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hull City — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Hull City and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Portsmouth 2–3 Hull City — a Hull City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (last 79 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City in-play tendencies (last 79 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 54% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 54% | Hull City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.08 xG and Hull City 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.914 / defence 0.888 | Hull City attack 1.332 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.190. Hull City have an above-average attack rating of 1.332, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 79 games and Hull City's last 79.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 27% | Draw 30% | Hull City 43%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 3.69 | Draw 3.34 | Hull City 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 50% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 35 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 27% | Draw 30% | Hull City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Portsmouth 1.08 / Hull City 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.914 / def 0.888 | Hull City attack 1.332 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Hull City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Hull City xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Hull City kick off?
Portsmouth vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Portsmouth vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Hull City part of?
Portsmouth vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 27% chance of winning, Hull City a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Portsmouth and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Portsmouth vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.91) and Hull City's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 79 games and Hull City's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.34
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.49
1.41
Hull City xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
15.08
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.41 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 79 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 24W 21D 34L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 29W 19D 31L from 79 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.18 PPG, Hull City on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Portsmouth have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 38 home games (17W 10D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hull City have gone 15W 8D 15L from their last 38 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.25 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Portsmouth (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Portsmouth vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Hull City in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 24W 21D 34L in their last 79 games (1.18 PPG), while Hull City have gone 29W 19D 31L in their last 79 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Hull City away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.61 PPG; Hull City away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Hull City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Hull City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 0, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Portsmouth 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 53%, Hull City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Portsmouth) and 45% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Portsmouth have failed to score in 26% of games; Hull City in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 50% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Portsmouth and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Portsmouth's recent games and 45% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 60% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Portsmouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.08 xG and Hull City 1.41 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Hull City attack 1.33 / defence 0.89, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 27% | Draw 30% | Hull City 43%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.18 PPG, Hull City 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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