Norwich 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Norwich face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich in Championship (matchday 44). The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Norwich have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Norwich at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Derby (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Norwich against 1.80 for Derby. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Norwich, 1 for Derby and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2025, ended Norwich 0–1 Derby — a Derby win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Norwich half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 62% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 49% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.29 xG and Derby 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.920 / defence 0.996 | Derby attack 1.162 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.170. Data: built from Norwich's last 89 games and Derby's last 89.
Result probabilities: Norwich 34% | Draw 30% | Derby 37%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 2.96 | Draw 3.38 | Derby 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Norwich 40% (last 10 home games) | Derby 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 44 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 34% | Draw 30% | Derby 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Norwich 1.29 / Derby 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.920 / def 0.996 | Derby attack 1.162 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Derby (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Derby xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Norwich vs Derby FAQs
What time does Norwich vs Derby kick off?
Norwich vs Derby kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Derby?
Norwich 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Norwich vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Derby part of?
Norwich vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 34% chance of winning, Derby a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Norwich and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Norwich vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Norwich's attack at 0.92x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.16x) against Norwich's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Norwich's last 89 games and Derby's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.38
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.65
1.35
Derby xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Norwich vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Norwich and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Norwich and 1.35 for Derby, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Norwich's recent record stands at 32W 22D 35L from 89 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 32W 20D 37L across 89 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Norwich against 1.30 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Norwich have managed 18W 10D 16L from their last 44 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 13W 9D 22L across their last 44 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Norwich are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norwich have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Norwich (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Norwich
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Norwich vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Norwich and Derby in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 32W 22D 35L in their last 89 games (1.33 PPG), while Derby have gone 32W 20D 37L in their last 89 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Derby away?
Norwich's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.45 PPG; Derby away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Norwich and Derby, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Norwich have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Norwich won Derby 0-4 Norwich on 3 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norwich have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Norwich
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Norwich vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Derby?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Norwich have won 3, Derby have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Norwich and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Derby 0-4 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Derby?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 66%, Derby 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Norwich) and 54% (Derby).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Norwich vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Norwich and Derby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Norwich's games and 61% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Norwich and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Norwich's recent games and 54% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Norwich's recent matches and 68% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Norwich defy the odds to beat Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Derby 2-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.29 xG and Derby 1.35 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Derby attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 34% | Draw 30% | Derby 37%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Norwich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 49%, Derby 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.33 PPG, Derby 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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