QPR 2-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 45 as QPR welcome Derby to Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 4W 1D 5L at Loftus Road — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derby's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Derby's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of QPR's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for QPR, 2 for Derby and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Derby in-play and half-time data (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 62% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 57% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.67 xG and Derby 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.149 / defence 1.274 | Derby attack 1.130 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.179. Data: 90 QPR games / 90 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 37% | Draw 25% | Derby 38%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Derby 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 37% | Draw 25% | Derby 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG QPR 1.67 / Derby 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.149 / def 1.274 | Derby attack 1.130 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Derby (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Derby xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Derby kick off?
QPR vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Derby?
QPR 2 - 3 Derby.
Where is QPR vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Derby part of?
QPR vs Derby is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 37% chance of winning, Derby a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both QPR and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 0 | Derby 2W.
What form are QPR and Derby in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Derby (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
QPR's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
37%
2.73
25%
3.95
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
QPR xG
Total xG
3.37
1.70
Derby xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for QPR and 1.70 for Derby, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 90 outings, QPR have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 30W 24D 36L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 32W 20D 38L from 90 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.27 PPG, Derby on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.38 PPG from 45 outings (17W 11D 17L).
On the road, Derby have gone 13W 9D 23L from 45 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 90 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Derby in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 30W 24D 36L in their last 90 games (1.27 PPG), while Derby have gone 32W 20D 38L in their last 90 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Derby away?
QPR's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.38 PPG; Derby away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
QPR
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when QPR 2-3 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — QPR at 71%, Derby at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for QPR and 56% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of QPR's games and 62% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of QPR's matches and 56% of Derby's.
Do QPR and Derby tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Derby in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out QPR 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat QPR 2-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.67 xG and Derby 1.70 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.15 / defence 1.27 against Derby attack 1.13 / defence 1.12, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 37% | Draw 25% | Derby 38%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 57%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.27 PPG, Derby 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.