Leeds 3-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leeds at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leeds host Hull City at Elland Road in Championship, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Leeds have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Leeds's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Elland Road this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Elland Road.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hull City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Leeds have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Leeds, 0 for Hull City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Leeds in-play and half-time data (77 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (77 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 56% versus Hull City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 58% | Hull City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.69 xG and Hull City 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.292 / defence 0.697 | Hull City attack 1.046 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.227. Leeds carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Leeds's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Leeds games / 84 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 56% | Draw 24% | Hull City 20%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Hull City 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Leeds 40% | Hull City 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 56% | Draw 24% | Hull City 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Leeds 1.69 / Hull City 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.292 / def 0.697 | Hull City attack 1.046 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Leeds (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Hull City xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Hull City kick off?
Leeds vs Hull City kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Hull City?
Leeds 3 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Leeds vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Hull City part of?
Leeds vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 56% chance of winning, Hull City a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Leeds and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): Leeds 0W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Leeds and Hull City in?
Leeds (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leeds's attack rating (1.29) and Hull City's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.15
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.58
0.89
Hull City xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
4%
27.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Leeds and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Leeds and 0.89 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Hull City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 77 outings, Leeds have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 32W 18D 27L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 27W 24D 26L from 77 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leeds on 1.48 PPG, Hull City on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Leeds have posted 1.84 PPG from 37 outings (19W 11D 7L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 14W 11D 12L from 37 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leeds are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.21 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Hull City in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 32W 18D 27L in their last 77 games (1.48 PPG), while Hull City have gone 27W 24D 26L in their last 77 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Hull City away?
Leeds's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 1.84 PPG; Hull City away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leeds and Hull City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leeds's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Leeds
2
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Hull City?
From 4 meetings on record, Leeds have won 2, Hull City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Hull City 3-3 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Hull City?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 60%, Hull City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Leeds) and 57% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hull City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Leeds's games and 57% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leeds vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Leeds's matches and 57% of Hull City's.
Do Leeds and Hull City tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hull City in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leeds cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Hull City 3-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.69 xG and Hull City 0.89 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.29 / defence 0.70 against Hull City attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 56% | Draw 24% | Hull City 20%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 58%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 1.48 PPG, Hull City 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.