Sunderland 1-5 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Blackburn.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sunderland welcome Blackburn to Stadium of Light in Championship (matchday 40). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sunderland — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Sunderland have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sunderland are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Blackburn have recorded 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Blackburn have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sunderland at 0.80 PPG versus Blackburn's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Sunderland, 1 for Blackburn and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2023, ended Sunderland 3–1 Blackburn — a Sunderland win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Blackburn 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 53% | Blackburn 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.56 xG and Blackburn 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.971 / defence 0.933 | Blackburn attack 0.867 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.209. Data: built from Sunderland's last 85 games and Blackburn's last 85.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 51% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.96 | Draw 3.94 | Blackburn 4.23. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 40% (last 10 home games) | Blackburn 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, matchday 40 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 51% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Sunderland 1.56 / Blackburn 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.971 / def 0.933 | Blackburn attack 0.867 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Blackburn xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Blackburn kick off?
Sunderland vs Blackburn kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Sunderland 1 - 5 Blackburn.
Where is Sunderland vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Blackburn part of?
Sunderland vs Blackburn is a Championship fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 51% chance of winning, Blackburn a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sunderland and Blackburn will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Sunderland vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.97x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 85 games and Blackburn's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.94
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.54
0.98
Blackburn xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.98 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland's recent record stands at 33W 20D 32L from 85 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 31W 18D 36L across 85 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.40 PPG, Blackburn on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 18W 9D 15L from their last 42 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 12W 9D 21L across their last 42 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.21 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Blackburn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 33W 20D 32L in their last 85 games (1.40 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 31W 18D 36L in their last 85 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Blackburn away?
Sunderland's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.50 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Apr 2024, when Blackburn won Sunderland 1-5 Blackburn.
Sunderland's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
1
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Blackburn?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 2, Blackburn have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Blackburn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Sunderland 0-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 57%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sunderland and 60% for Blackburn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Blackburn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Blackburn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Blackburn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Blackburn matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sunderland's matches and 60% of Blackburn's.
Do Sunderland and Blackburn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Sunderland's recent matches and 69% of Blackburn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Blackburn run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Sunderland 1-5 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.56 xG and Blackburn 0.98 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 0.98 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Blackburn attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 51% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Blackburn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 53%, Blackburn 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.40 PPG, Blackburn 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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