Swansea 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Swansea, 1.80 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Swansea 1W, QPR 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 61% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 58% | QPR 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.95 xG and QPR 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.905 / defence 1.127 | QPR attack 0.792 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.209. QPR's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 85 Swansea games / 85 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 30% | QPR 38%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | QPR 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 60% | QPR 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 30% | QPR 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Swansea 0.95 / QPR 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.905 / def 1.127 | QPR attack 0.792 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: QPR (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.08
QPR xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs QPR kick off?
Swansea vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs QPR?
Swansea 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Swansea vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs QPR part of?
Swansea vs QPR is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 31% chance of winning, QPR a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Swansea and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
Record (5 meetings): Swansea 1W | Draws 3 | QPR 1W.
What form are Swansea and QPR in?
Swansea (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. QPR (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.79x) against Swansea's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 85/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
31%
3.18
30%
3.28
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.03
1.08
QPR xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Swansea and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Swansea and 1.08 for QPR, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea's recent record stands at 30W 23D 32L from 85 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 40L across 85 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Swansea against 1.09 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 17W 9D 16L from 42 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 13W 10D 19L across 42 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.96 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 85 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and QPR in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 30W 23D 32L in their last 85 games (1.33 PPG), while QPR have gone 24W 21D 40L in their last 85 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or QPR away?
Swansea's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.43 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Swansea
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when QPR 1-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and QPR?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 57%, QPR 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Swansea) and 43% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Swansea's recent matches and 43% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Swansea's recent games and 43% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and QPR tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, QPR in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Swansea 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Swansea 0-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.95 xG and QPR 1.08 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against QPR attack 0.79 / defence 0.78, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 31% | Draw 30% | QPR 38%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 58%, QPR 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.33 PPG, QPR 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.