Cardiff 1-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hull City travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff in Championship (matchday 41). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cardiff have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cardiff) versus 1.30 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Hull City have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Cardiff.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Cardiff 0–3 Hull City — a Hull City win.
Hull City have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hull City trading profile (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 42% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 41% | Hull City 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cardiff surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Hull City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.10 xG and Hull City 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.774 / defence 1.025 | Hull City attack 1.053 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.223. Cardiff's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Cardiff's last 86 games and Hull City's last 85.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 31% | Draw 27% | Hull City 42%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.23 | Draw 3.66 | Hull City 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Hull City 5 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cardiff 30% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 41 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 31% | Draw 27% | Hull City 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Cardiff 1.10 / Hull City 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.774 / def 1.025 | Hull City attack 1.053 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Hull City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hull City xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cardiff vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Cardiff vs Hull City kick off?
Cardiff vs Hull City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Hull City?
Cardiff 1 - 3 Hull City.
Where is Cardiff vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Hull City part of?
Cardiff vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 31% chance of winning, Hull City a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cardiff and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Cardiff vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.77) and Hull City's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cardiff's last 86 games and Hull City's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.66
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.42
1.32
Hull City xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cardiff vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.32 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 85 games, going 29W 15D 41L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.36 PPG from 85 outings (30W 26D 29L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.20 PPG, Hull City on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 14W 10D 18L across their last 42 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 42 away games (14W 13D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.24 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Cardiff (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cardiff
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Cardiff vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Cardiff and Hull City in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 29W 15D 41L in their last 85 games (1.20 PPG), while Hull City have gone 30W 26D 29L in their last 85 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.24 PPG; Hull City away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 25 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Dec 2023, when Hull City won Hull City 3-0 Cardiff.
Cardiff's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cardiff
0
Draws
7
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Cardiff vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Hull City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cardiff have won 1, Hull City have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 February 2025: Cardiff 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 45%, Hull City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cardiff) and 57% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cardiff have failed to score in 31% of games; Hull City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cardiff vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cardiff and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cardiff's recent matches and 60% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cardiff and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cardiff's recent games and 57% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Cardiff's recent matches and 67% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Cardiff 1-3 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.10 xG and Hull City 1.32 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.77 / defence 1.02 against Hull City attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 31% | Draw 27% | Hull City 42%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 41%, Hull City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.20 PPG, Hull City 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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