Ipswich 3-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ipswich host QPR at Portman Road in Championship (matchday 46). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Ipswich — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ipswich have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ipswich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, QPR stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Ipswich have won 2, QPR 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Ipswich 4–1 QPR — a Ipswich win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
QPR in-play and half-time data (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 59% versus QPR 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 54% | QPR 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.61 xG and QPR 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.148 / defence 0.863 | QPR attack 0.808 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.204. Data: built from Ipswich's last 45 games and QPR's last 91.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 54% | Draw 28% | QPR 18%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.85 | Draw 3.56 | QPR 5.56. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ipswich 60% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 46 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 54% | Draw 28% | QPR 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Ipswich 1.61 / QPR 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.148 / def 0.863 | QPR attack 0.808 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.84
QPR xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs QPR FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs QPR kick off?
Ipswich vs QPR kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs QPR?
Ipswich 3 - 0 QPR.
Where is Ipswich vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs QPR part of?
Ipswich vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 54% chance of winning, QPR a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ipswich and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Ipswich vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.15) and QPR's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 45 games and QPR's last 91 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.56
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.45
0.84
QPR xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
4%
27.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ipswich and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.84 for QPR, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 26W 25D 32L from 83 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 29W 20D 34L across 83 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.24 PPG, QPR on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 14W 12D 15L from their last 41 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 12W 11D 18L across their last 41 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 60%.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Ipswich (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Ipswich vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and QPR in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 26W 25D 32L in their last 83 games (1.24 PPG), while QPR have gone 29W 20D 34L in their last 83 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or QPR away?
Ipswich's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.32 PPG; QPR away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ipswich have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Nov 2025, when Ipswich won QPR 1-4 Ipswich.
Ipswich's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
0
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and QPR?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 3, QPR have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ipswich and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Ipswich 3-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and QPR?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 54%, QPR 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ipswich) and 44% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ipswich's recent matches and 51% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ipswich and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Ipswich's recent games and 44% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Ipswich's recent matches and 66% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 3-0 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat QPR 3-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.61 xG and QPR 0.84 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.15 / defence 0.86 against QPR attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 54% | Draw 28% | QPR 18%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 54%, QPR 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.24 PPG, QPR 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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