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Poisson model rates Swansea at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 46 as Swansea welcome Charlton to Swansea.com Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 5W 3D 2L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Charlton's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Swansea) versus 1.20 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Swansea, 0 for Charlton and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Swansea trading profile (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Charlton trading profile (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 47% versus Charlton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 47% | Charlton 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.41 xG and Charlton 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.038 / defence 1.009 | Charlton attack 0.817 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.204. Data: 91 Swansea games / 45 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Swansea 45% | Draw 30% | Charlton 25%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 4.00. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 50% | Charlton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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