Portsmouth 1-3 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees QPR travel to Fratton Park to take on Portsmouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Portsmouth have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Portsmouth haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. QPR haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Portsmouth 1.50 PPG, QPR 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for QPR and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–6 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
QPR in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 54% versus QPR 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 44% | QPR 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.39 xG and QPR 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.940 / defence 0.927 | QPR attack 0.899 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.230. Data: 46 Portsmouth games / 46 QPR games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 44% | Draw 30% | QPR 26%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | QPR 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 40% | QPR 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 44% | Draw 30% | QPR 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Portsmouth 1.39 / QPR 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.940 / def 0.927 | QPR attack 0.899 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.02
QPR xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs QPR kick off?
Portsmouth vs QPR kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs QPR?
Portsmouth 1 - 3 QPR.
Where is Portsmouth vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs QPR part of?
Portsmouth vs QPR is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 44% chance of winning, QPR a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Portsmouth and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and QPR?
Record (4 meetings): Portsmouth 2W | Draws 1 | QPR 1W.
What form are Portsmouth and QPR in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Portsmouth (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Portsmouth's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.36
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
QPR xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.02 for QPR, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 14W 13D 19L from 46 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. Portsmouth haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 20L across 46 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. QPR haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.20 PPG, QPR on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.33 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Pre-Season
QPR
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and QPR in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or QPR away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.30 PPG; QPR away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and QPR runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
QPR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when QPR won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Portsmouth
1
Draws
2
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and QPR?
From 5 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 2, QPR have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Portsmouth 1-3 QPR.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 48%, QPR 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Portsmouth) and 48% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth have failed to score in 30% of games; QPR in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 52% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Portsmouth's recent games and 48% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and QPR tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, QPR in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Portsmouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Portsmouth 1-3 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.39 xG and QPR 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. QPR outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 44% | Draw 30% | QPR 26%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 44%, QPR 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.20 PPG, QPR 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.