Derby 2-0 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derby at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Sheffield Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Sheffield Utd at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 5W 3D 2L at Pride Park Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Sheffield Utd have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Sheffield Utd have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derby at 1.50 PPG versus Sheffield Utd's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sheffield Utd in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Sheffield Utd and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Sheffield Utd winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sheffield Utd in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Sheffield Utd 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 36% | Sheffield Utd 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.23 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.003 / defence 1.042 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.923 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.147. Sheffield Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Derby games / 22 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 39% | Draw 29% | Sheffield Utd 32%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Sheffield Utd 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Derby 60% | Sheffield Utd 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 39% | Draw 29% | Sheffield Utd 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Derby 1.23 / Sheffield Utd 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.003 / def 1.042 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.923 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Derby (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sheffield Utd xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Derby vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Derby 2 - 0 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Derby vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Derby vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 39% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Derby and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Sheffield Utd 1W.
What form are Derby and Sheffield Utd in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derby's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Utd's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.47
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Derby xG
Total xG
2.33
1.10
Sheffield Utd xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Derby and 1.10 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby's recent record stands at 6W 10D 6L from 22 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 8L across 22 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.27 PPG, Sheffield Utd on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derby have managed 5W 4D 2L from 11 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.32 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Sheffield Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 6W 10D 6L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Derby's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.73 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Derby or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Sheffield Utd runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Sheffield Utd specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
0
Draws
4
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Sheffield Utd have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Sheffield Utd 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Derby) and 54% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sheffield Utd in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 54% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Derby's recent games and 54% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sheffield Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Sheffield Utd 2-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.23 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.10 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sheffield Utd landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 25/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 39% | Draw 29% | Sheffield Utd 32%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 36%, Sheffield Utd 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.27 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.