Fulham 0-1 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Sheffield Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Utd make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Championship, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Monday 20 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Championship record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Craven Cottage.
Sheffield Utd (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sheffield Utd have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Fulham. A 0.50 PPG lead over Sheffield Utd (2.20 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sheffield Utd — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 57% versus Sheffield Utd 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 57% | Sheffield Utd 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.98 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.418 / defence 0.932 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.957 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.095. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sheffield Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Fulham games / 21 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 59% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Utd 17%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Sheffield Utd 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Sheffield Utd 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Monday 20 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 59% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Utd 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Fulham 1.98 / Sheffield Utd 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.418 / def 0.932 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.957 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Fulham (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sheffield Utd xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Fulham vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 20 December 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Sheffield Utd?
Fulham 0 - 1 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Fulham vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Fulham vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 59% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fulham and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Sheffield Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Sheffield Utd in?
Fulham (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fulham's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Sheffield Utd's attack (0.96x) against Fulham's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.21
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.95
0.98
Sheffield Utd xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
42.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Fulham and 0.98 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Sheffield Utd?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham's recent record stands at 13W 5D 3L from 21 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 8L across 21 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fulham by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sheffield Utd heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 7W 2D 1L from 10 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Sheffield Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 13W 5D 3L in their last 21 games (2.10 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Fulham's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.30 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Fulham or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Utd won 4-0 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fulham
1
Draws
2
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Sheffield Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Sheffield Utd have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Sheffield Utd 3-3 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 50%, Sheffield Utd 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Fulham and 60% for Sheffield Utd. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sheffield Utd in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Sheffield Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fulham's games and 60% of Sheffield Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fulham's matches and 60% of Sheffield Utd's.
Do Fulham and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sheffield Utd defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.98 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.98 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.42 / defence 0.93 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.96 / defence 1.36, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 59% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Utd 17%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Sheffield Utd win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 57%, Sheffield Utd 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Utd winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.