Cardiff 0-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Blackburn at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Blackburn make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cardiff have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cardiff City Stadium this season.
Blackburn's overall Championship record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Blackburn are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cardiff lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–5 with Blackburn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 54% versus Blackburn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 58% | Blackburn 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 0.79 xG and Blackburn 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.779 / defence 1.447 | Blackburn attack 0.900 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 1.145. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Cardiff games / 25 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 19% | Draw 27% | Blackburn 53%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Blackburn 1.89. Blackburn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 40% | Blackburn 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 19% | Draw 27% | Blackburn 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Cardiff 0.79 / Blackburn 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.779 / def 1.447 | Blackburn attack 0.900 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.002 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Blackburn xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Blackburn kick off?
Cardiff vs Blackburn kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Cardiff 0 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Cardiff vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Blackburn part of?
Cardiff vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 19% chance of winning, Blackburn a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cardiff and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Blackburn?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Blackburn in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Blackburn (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.78) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.90x) against Cardiff's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
19%
5.19
27%
3.67
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.27
1.49
Blackburn xG
5.19
19%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
4%
23.05
24%
4.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 15.3 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.49 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cardiff come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 5D 13L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (12W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cardiff's home form reads 2W 1D 8L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.45 points per game from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.71 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Blackburn in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 12W 7D 5L in their last 24 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Blackburn away?
Blackburn's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 0.64 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Blackburn in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
1
Draws
5
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Blackburn?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Blackburn have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Blackburn 1-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 46%, Blackburn 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cardiff) and 36% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cardiff's recent matches and 64% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cardiff's recent games and 36% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Blackburn tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.79 xG and Blackburn 1.49 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.78 / defence 1.45 against Blackburn attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 19% | Draw 27% | Blackburn 53%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 58%, Blackburn 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackburn's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackburn arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.