Fulham 6-2 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Bristol City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Bristol City meet at Craven Cottage in Championship, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Championship record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fulham have posted 6W 2D 2L at Craven Cottage — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bristol City have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bristol City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Bristol City have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Fulham's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Bristol City's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bristol City — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus Bristol City 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 54% | Bristol City 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.06 xG and Bristol City 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.243 / defence 0.937 | Bristol City attack 0.905 / defence 1.646. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.147. Bristol City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.646 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Fulham games / 25 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 62% | Draw 21% | Bristol City 17%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Bristol City 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Bristol City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 62% | Draw 21% | Bristol City 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Fulham 2.06 / Bristol City 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.243 / def 0.937 | Bristol City attack 0.905 / def 1.646 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Fulham (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bristol City xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Bristol City kick off?
Fulham vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bristol City?
Fulham 6 - 2 Bristol City.
Where is Fulham vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bristol City part of?
Fulham vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 62% chance of winning, Bristol City a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fulham and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bristol City?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 1 | Bristol City 0W.
What form are Fulham and Bristol City in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Bristol City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.24x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.91x) against Fulham's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.74
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.03
0.97
Bristol City xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
47.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Fulham and 0.97 for Bristol City, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bristol City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham's recent record stands at 14W 6D 4L from 24 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bristol City, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 11L across 24 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bristol City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fulham by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bristol City heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 7W 2D 2L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bristol City's away record stands at 4W 1D 6L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.21 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bristol City in 62%.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Bristol City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 14W 6D 4L in their last 24 games (2.00 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bristol City away?
Fulham's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.09 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Fulham or Bristol City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bristol City in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fulham
1
Draws
0
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bristol City?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Bristol City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Fulham 6-2 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bristol City?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 46%, Bristol City 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Fulham and 82% for Bristol City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bristol City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Bristol City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fulham's recent matches and 64% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Fulham's matches and 82% of Bristol City's.
Do Fulham and Bristol City tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Bristol City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Bristol City 6-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.06 xG and Bristol City 0.97 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bristol City outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.24 / defence 0.94 against Bristol City attack 0.91 / defence 1.65, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 62% | Draw 21% | Bristol City 17%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 54%, Bristol City 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bristol City's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol City (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.