Derby 1-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Ipswich.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park plays host to Derby versus Ipswich in Championship (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:31 UK time.
Form
Derby (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ipswich have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ipswich away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Derby, 2.00 for Ipswich — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Derby's last 10 home games and Ipswich's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Derby's games and 70% of Ipswich's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Ipswich edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Derby 2–2 Ipswich — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 58% versus Ipswich 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 43% | Ipswich 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.16 xG and Ipswich 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.869 / defence 1.099 | Ipswich attack 1.088 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.143. Data: built from Derby's last 76 games and Ipswich's last 29.
Result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 40%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.29 | Draw 3.41 | Ipswich 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 70% (last 10 home games) | Ipswich 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:31 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Derby 1.16 / Ipswich 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.869 / def 1.099 | Ipswich attack 1.088 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ipswich xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Ipswich FAQs
What time does Derby vs Ipswich kick off?
Derby vs Ipswich kicked off at 12:31 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Ipswich?
Derby 1 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Derby vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Ipswich part of?
Derby vs Ipswich is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 30% chance of winning, Ipswich a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Derby and Ipswich will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derby vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.09x) against Derby's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 76 games and Ipswich's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
30%
3.29
29%
3.41
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Derby xG
Total xG
2.52
1.37
Ipswich xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Ipswich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Derby and 1.37 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Derby have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 21W 20D 26L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ipswich's form line: 18W 19D 30L from 67 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Derby against 1.09 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.16 PPG from their last 32 home games (9W 10D 13L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 7W 10D 15L from their last 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.27 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Ipswich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Ipswich Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 20D 26L in their last 67 games (1.24 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 18W 19D 30L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Ipswich away?
Derby's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.16 PPG; Ipswich away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Derby
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Ipswich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Ipswich?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 0, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Ipswich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Derby 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Ipswich 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Derby) and 56% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Derby have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Ipswich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Ipswich matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Derby's games and 69% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Derby and Ipswich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Derby's recent games and 56% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Ipswich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Derby's recent matches and 72% of Ipswich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.16 xG and Ipswich 1.37 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Ipswich attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 76/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 30% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 40%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, Ipswich 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.24 PPG, Ipswich 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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