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Poisson model rates Derby at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Derby host Swansea at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Derby's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Pride Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.50 PPG, Swansea 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Swansea in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Derby have won 1, Swansea 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Derby winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Derby in-play tendencies (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).

Swansea in-play tendencies (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 56% versus Swansea 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Swansea 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.20 xG and Swansea 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.881 / defence 1.135 | Swansea attack 0.907 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.144. Data: 77 Derby games / 77 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Swansea 34%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Swansea 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 80% | Swansea 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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