Charlton 0-1 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Wrexham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Wrexham in Championship (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charlton have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Charlton's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Wrexham (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wrexham's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Wrexham are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Charlton, 2 for Wrexham and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Charlton 0–1 Wrexham — a Wrexham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 46% versus Wrexham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Wrexham 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.93 xG and Wrexham 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.738 / defence 1.065 | Wrexham attack 0.990 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.188. Charlton's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Charlton's last 34 games and Wrexham's last 34.
Result probabilities: Charlton 26% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 42%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.84 | Draw 3.13 | Wrexham 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wrexham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Wrexham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charlton 50% (last 10 home games) | Wrexham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Wrexham | Competition: Championship, matchday 35 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 26% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Charlton 0.93 / Wrexham 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.738 / def 1.065 | Wrexham attack 0.990 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Wrexham xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Wrexham FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Wrexham kick off?
Charlton vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Wrexham?
Charlton 0 - 1 Wrexham.
Where is Charlton vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Wrexham part of?
Charlton vs Wrexham is a Championship fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 26% chance of winning, Wrexham a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Charlton and Wrexham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Charlton vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.74x the league average against Wrexham's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wrexham's attack (0.99x) against Charlton's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 34 games and Wrexham's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
26%
3.84
32%
3.13
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.19
1.25
Wrexham xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Wrexham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Charlton and 1.25 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 80 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 34W 22D 24L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Wrexham's form line: 41W 23D 16L from 80 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Charlton against 1.82 for Wrexham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 39 home games (22W 10D 7L).
On the road, Wrexham have gone 17W 12D 10L from their last 39 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.50 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Wrexham in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Wrexham
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Wrexham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Wrexham
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Wrexham Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 34W 22D 24L in their last 80 games (1.55 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 41W 23D 16L in their last 80 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Wrexham away?
Charlton's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.95 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Charlton or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Wrexham in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Charlton and Wrexham, the earliest from October 2024. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Wrexham have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wrexham won Wrexham 3-0 Charlton on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wrexham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Charlton
1
Draws
3
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Wrexham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wrexham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 0, Wrexham have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charlton and Wrexham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Charlton 0-1 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 51%, Wrexham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charlton) and 36% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Wrexham in 41%; Wrexham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Wrexham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Wrexham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Charlton's recent matches and 46% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charlton and Wrexham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charlton's recent games and 36% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Wrexham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Charlton's recent matches and 67% of Wrexham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Charlton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.93 xG and Wrexham 1.25 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charlton fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Wrexham attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 26% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 42%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Wrexham 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Wrexham's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.55 PPG, Wrexham 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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