Charlton 1-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 36%, yet in-form Birmingham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Birmingham travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 3W 2D 5L at The Valley — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Birmingham — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Birmingham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Birmingham are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Charlton have won 1, Birmingham 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Birmingham trading profile (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 46% versus Birmingham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Birmingham 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.08 xG and Birmingham 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.692 / defence 1.033 | Birmingham attack 0.786 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.212. Charlton's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Charlton games / 35 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 36% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 31%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Birmingham 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Birmingham (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 50% | Birmingham 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 36% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Charlton 1.08 / Birmingham 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.692 / def 1.033 | Birmingham attack 0.786 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Charlton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Birmingham xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Birmingham kick off?
Charlton vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Birmingham?
Charlton 1 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Charlton vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Birmingham part of?
Charlton vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 36% chance of winning, Birmingham a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Charlton and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Birmingham?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 1 | Birmingham 1W.
What form are Charlton and Birmingham in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Birmingham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.69x the league average against Birmingham's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.01
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.07
0.98
Birmingham xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Charlton and 0.98 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 81 games, going 34W 22D 25L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.98 PPG from 81 outings (47W 19D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Birmingham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 22W 10D 8L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 1.62 points per game from 40 outings (19W 8D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.60 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Birmingham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 34W 22D 25L in their last 81 games (1.53 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 47W 19D 15L in their last 81 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Birmingham away?
Charlton's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.90 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Charlton or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Birmingham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Charlton's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Birmingham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Birmingham?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Birmingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Charlton) and 48% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 52% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Charlton's recent games and 48% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Birmingham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Birmingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Birmingham 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.08 xG and Birmingham 0.98 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.69 / defence 1.03 against Birmingham attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 36% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 31%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Birmingham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Birmingham's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.53. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.