Charlton 2-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charlton face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Hull City at The Valley in Championship (matchday 45). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Charlton have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.00 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Charlton, 0 for Hull City and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Charlton 1–1 Hull City — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hull City in-play and half-time data (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 48% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Hull City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.89 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.680 / defence 1.123 | Hull City attack 1.075 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.186. Charlton's attack rating of 0.680 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Charlton's last 44 games and Hull City's last 90.
Result probabilities: Charlton 22% | Draw 30% | Hull City 48%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.59 | Draw 3.33 | Hull City 2.08. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charlton 50% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 22% | Draw 30% | Hull City 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Charlton 0.89 / Hull City 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.680 / def 1.123 | Hull City attack 1.075 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Hull City (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hull City xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Hull City kick off?
Charlton vs Hull City kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Hull City?
Charlton 2 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Charlton vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Hull City part of?
Charlton vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 22% chance of winning, Hull City a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charlton and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Charlton vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charlton's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 44 games and Hull City's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
22%
4.59
30%
3.33
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.32
1.43
Hull City xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
19.20
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Charlton and 1.43 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 90 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 36W 25D 29L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 32W 23D 35L from 90 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.48 PPG, Hull City on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 45 home games (23W 10D 12L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 17W 10D 18L from their last 45 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Hull City in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 36W 25D 29L in their last 90 games (1.48 PPG), while Hull City have gone 32W 23D 35L in their last 90 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Hull City away?
Charlton's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.76 PPG; Hull City away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Charlton or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hull City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2025. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Hull City?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 1, Hull City have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charlton and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Charlton 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Hull City?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 51%, Hull City 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charlton) and 47% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Hull City in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Charlton's recent matches and 51% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charlton and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Charlton's recent games and 47% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Charlton's recent matches and 62% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Hull City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Hull City 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.89 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.68 / defence 1.12 against Hull City attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 22% | Draw 30% | Hull City 48%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.48 PPG, Hull City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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