Cardiff 0-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sunderland travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff in Championship (matchday 39). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cardiff have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Cardiff have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sunderland — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cardiff are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cardiff have won 2, Sunderland 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Cardiff 1–0 Sunderland — a Cardiff win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 42% versus Sunderland 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 40% | Sunderland 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.12 xG and Sunderland 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.821 / defence 0.969 | Sunderland attack 0.800 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.205. Data: built from Cardiff's last 84 games and Sunderland's last 84.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 40% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 30%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.51 | Draw 3.32 | Sunderland 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cardiff's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cardiff 30% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 39 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 40% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Cardiff 1.12 / Sunderland 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.821 / def 0.969 | Sunderland attack 0.800 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sunderland xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cardiff vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Cardiff vs Sunderland kick off?
Cardiff vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Cardiff 0 - 2 Sunderland.
Where is Cardiff vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Sunderland part of?
Cardiff vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 40% chance of winning, Sunderland a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cardiff and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Cardiff vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cardiff's last 84 games and Sunderland's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.32
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Sunderland xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cardiff vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.93 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff's recent record stands at 29W 15D 40L from 84 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 32W 20D 32L across 84 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.21 PPG, Sunderland on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 15W 10D 17L from their last 42 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 14W 11D 17L across their last 42 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
Cardiff (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cardiff
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Cardiff vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Cardiff and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 29W 15D 40L in their last 84 games (1.21 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 32W 20D 32L in their last 84 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Sunderland away?
Cardiff's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.31 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sunderland have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Cardiff's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cardiff
0
Draws
4
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Cardiff vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sunderland?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cardiff have won 2, Sunderland have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Sunderland 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 45%, Sunderland 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cardiff) and 45% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cardiff have failed to score in 29% of games; Sunderland in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cardiff vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cardiff and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cardiff's recent matches and 52% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cardiff and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cardiff's recent games and 45% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Cardiff's recent matches and 71% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.12 xG and Sunderland 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Sunderland attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 40% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 30%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 40%, Sunderland 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.21 PPG, Sunderland 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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