Swansea 2-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Cardiff at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 3W 2D 5L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cardiff — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Swansea: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Cardiff, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Cardiff winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Swansea and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 61% versus Cardiff 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 59% | Cardiff 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.23 xG and Cardiff 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.841 / defence 1.188 | Cardiff attack 0.869 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.247. Data: 83 Swansea games / 83 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 35% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 38%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Cardiff 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Swansea dominate the H2H record, yet Cardiff are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 70% | Cardiff 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 35% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Swansea 1.23 / Cardiff 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.841 / def 1.188 | Cardiff attack 0.869 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Cardiff xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Cardiff kick off?
Swansea vs Cardiff kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Swansea 2 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Swansea vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Cardiff part of?
Swansea vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 35% chance of winning, Cardiff a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Swansea and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
Record (5 meetings): Swansea 4W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 1W.
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.84) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 83/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.72
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.51
1.29
Cardiff xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Swansea and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Swansea and 1.29 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 29W 22D 32L from 83 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 29W 15D 39L across 83 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.31 PPG, Cardiff on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 16W 9D 16L from 41 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 14W 5D 22L across 41 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.01 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 83 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 29W 22D 32L in their last 83 games (1.31 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 29W 15D 39L in their last 83 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Cardiff away?
Swansea's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.39 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 5, Cardiff have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Cardiff?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 58%, Cardiff 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Swansea) and 49% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Cardiff in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Swansea's recent matches and 39% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Swansea's recent games and 49% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Cardiff tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Cardiff 2-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.23 xG and Cardiff 1.29 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.84 / defence 1.19 against Cardiff attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 35% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 38%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 59%, Cardiff 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Cardiff's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.31 PPG, Cardiff 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.