QPR 2-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Birmingham make the trip to MATRADE Loftus Road to face QPR in Championship (matchday 39). The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
QPR (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
QPR at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Birmingham have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Birmingham have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. QPR's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Birmingham's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended QPR 0–0 Birmingham — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 48% versus Birmingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 48% | Birmingham 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.44 xG and Birmingham 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.877 / defence 1.139 | Birmingham attack 0.762 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.205. Birmingham's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Birmingham's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from QPR's last 84 games and Birmingham's last 84.
Result probabilities: QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Birmingham 27%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.17 | Draw 3.78 | Birmingham 3.65. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: QPR 60% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 39 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Birmingham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG QPR 1.44 / Birmingham 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.877 / def 1.139 | Birmingham attack 0.762 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: QPR (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Birmingham xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does QPR vs Birmingham kick off?
QPR vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Birmingham?
QPR 2 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is QPR vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Birmingham part of?
QPR vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 46% chance of winning, Birmingham a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both QPR and Birmingham will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will QPR vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from QPR's attack rating (0.88) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.76x) against QPR's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 84 games and Birmingham's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.78
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
QPR xG
Total xG
2.49
1.05
Birmingham xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are QPR and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for QPR and 1.05 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
QPR come into this having played 84 games, going 23W 21D 40L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.10 PPG from 84 outings (24W 20D 40L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for QPR against 1.10 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
QPR's home form reads 10W 11D 21L across their last 42 home games, a 0.98 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 42 away games (10W 8D 24L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.06 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Birmingham in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 23W 21D 40L in their last 84 games (1.07 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 24W 20D 40L in their last 84 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Birmingham away?
QPR's home record (0.98 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.98 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Birmingham have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Birmingham won Birmingham 3-0 QPR on 17 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
QPR
1
Draws
4
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Birmingham?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 4, Birmingham have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did QPR and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Birmingham 3-0 QPR.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, Birmingham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 43% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 38% of games; Birmingham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 48% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of QPR's recent games and 43% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of QPR's recent matches and 76% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Birmingham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Birmingham 2-1 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.44 xG and Birmingham 1.05 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Birmingham attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Birmingham 27%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 48%, Birmingham 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.07 PPG, Birmingham 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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