Cardiff 2-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Hull City travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Cardiff City Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cardiff City Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Cardiff) versus 1.00 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cardiff, 2 for Hull City and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Hull City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Hull City trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 45% versus Hull City 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 46% | Hull City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.13 xG and Hull City 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.758 / defence 0.860 | Hull City attack 1.080 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.116. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Cardiff games / 65 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 29% | Hull City 33%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Hull City 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 40% | Hull City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 29% | Hull City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Cardiff 1.13 / Hull City 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.758 / def 0.860 | Hull City attack 1.080 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Hull City xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Hull City kick off?
Cardiff vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Hull City?
Cardiff 2 - 3 Hull City.
Where is Cardiff vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Hull City part of?
Cardiff vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 38% chance of winning, Hull City a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cardiff and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Hull City?
Record (2 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 0 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Cardiff and Hull City in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Hull City (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.76) and Hull City's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.41
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.17
1.04
Hull City xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.04 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 65 games, going 22W 11D 32L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.11 PPG from 65 outings (20W 12D 33L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.18 PPG, Hull City on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 11W 6D 15L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.09 points per game from 32 outings (9W 8D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.95 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Hull City in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 22W 11D 32L in their last 65 games (1.18 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 12D 33L in their last 65 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Hull City away?
Cardiff's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.22 PPG; Hull City away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Hull City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Hull City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cardiff
0
Draws
7
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Hull City?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 1, Hull City have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Cardiff 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 38%, Hull City 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Cardiff and 34% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Hull City in 34%; Cardiff have failed to score in 41% of games; Hull City in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cardiff's recent matches and 34% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cardiff's recent games and 34% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Hull City tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Hull City in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Cardiff 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Cardiff 2-3 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.13 xG and Hull City 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hull City outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.76 / defence 0.86 against Hull City attack 1.08 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 38% | Draw 29% | Hull City 33%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 46%, Hull City 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.18 PPG, Hull City 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.