Sunderland 0-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Cardiff travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's home record at Stadium of Light: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium of Light.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.30 PPG, Cardiff 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cardiff trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 52% versus Cardiff 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 53% | Cardiff 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.42 xG and Cardiff 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.887 / defence 1.114 | Cardiff attack 0.836 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.116. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Sunderland games / 64 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 46% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 28%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Cardiff 3.57. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 40% | Cardiff 30% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 46% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Sunderland 1.42 / Cardiff 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.887 / def 1.114 | Cardiff attack 0.836 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cardiff xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Cardiff kick off?
Sunderland vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Sunderland vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Cardiff part of?
Sunderland vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 46% chance of winning, Cardiff a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sunderland and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Cardiff?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Cardiff in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.89) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.75
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.46
1.04
Cardiff xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.04 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland's recent record stands at 30W 19D 15L from 64 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 32L across 64 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 19W 7D 6L from 32 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 10W 5D 17L across 32 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 30W 19D 15L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 21W 11D 32L in their last 64 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Cardiff away?
Sunderland's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.00 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cardiff in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Cardiff runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sunderland have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sunderland's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sunderland
0
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Cardiff?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 4, Cardiff have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Sunderland 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Cardiff?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 50%, Cardiff 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sunderland) and 59% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cardiff in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sunderland's recent matches and 53% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sunderland's recent games and 59% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Cardiff tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.42 xG and Cardiff 1.04 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Cardiff attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 18/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 46% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 28%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 53%, Cardiff 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Cardiff's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Cardiff winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.