Millwall 0-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Millwall at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Millwall vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Millwall and Hull City meet at The Den in Championship, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Millwall's overall Championship record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Millwall are significantly better at The Den than their overall form suggests.
Hull City (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hull City have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Millwall's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hull City's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Millwall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 48% versus Hull City 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Millwall 38% | Hull City 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 2.03 xG and Hull City 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.199 / defence 0.800 | Hull City attack 1.165 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.116. Hull City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Millwall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Millwall games / 64 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 60% | Draw 21% | Hull City 19%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Hull City 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Millwall (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 30% | Hull City 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 60% | Draw 21% | Hull City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Millwall 2.03 / Hull City 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.199 / def 0.800 | Hull City attack 1.165 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Millwall (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Hull City xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Hull City kick off?
Millwall vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Millwall 0 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Millwall vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Hull City part of?
Millwall vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 60% chance of winning, Hull City a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Millwall and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Millwall and Hull City in?
Millwall (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Hull City (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Millwall's attack rating (1.20) and Hull City's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.17x) against Millwall's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.77
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Millwall xG
Total xG
3.07
1.04
Hull City xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
40.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Millwall and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Millwall and 1.04 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Hull City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall's recent record stands at 26W 18D 20L from 64 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 33L across 64 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Millwall against 1.11 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 20W 5D 6L from 31 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Millwall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hull City's away record stands at 9W 7D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.97 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Hull City in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 26W 18D 20L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 11D 33L in their last 64 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Hull City away?
Millwall's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 2.10 PPG; Hull City away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Millwall
4
Draws
5
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Hull City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 42%, Hull City 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Millwall) and 36% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Hull City in 32%; Hull City in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Millwall's recent matches and 36% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Millwall's recent games and 36% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Hull City tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Hull City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Millwall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Den, Regular Season - 20, as Millwall and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 2.03 xG and Hull City 1.04 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Millwall fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.20 / defence 0.80 against Hull City attack 1.17 / defence 1.30, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 60% | Draw 21% | Hull City 19%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 38%, Hull City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.50 PPG, Hull City 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.