Burnley 1-0 Norwich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Norwich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 9 as Burnley welcome Norwich to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Norwich — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Norwich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Norwich have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Burnley have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Norwich in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Norwich and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Norwich winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Norwich trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 54% versus Norwich 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 35% | Norwich 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.54 xG and Norwich 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.199 / defence 0.958 | Norwich attack 0.930 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.140. Data: 16 Burnley games / 16 Norwich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 49% | Draw 26% | Norwich 25%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Norwich 4.00. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Norwich 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Norwich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 49% | Draw 26% | Norwich 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Burnley 1.54 / Norwich 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.199 / def 0.958 | Norwich attack 0.930 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Burnley (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Norwich xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Norwich kick off?
Burnley vs Norwich kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Norwich?
Burnley 1 - 0 Norwich.
Where is Burnley vs Norwich being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Norwich part of?
Burnley vs Norwich is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Norwich?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 49% chance of winning, Norwich a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Norwich?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Burnley and Norwich will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Norwich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Norwich?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Norwich 1W.
What form are Burnley and Norwich in?
Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Norwich (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 1.20x the league average against Norwich's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norwich's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.90
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.55
1.02
Norwich xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Norwich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Norwich expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Burnley and 1.02 for Norwich, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Norwich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 14W 22D 18L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norwich's form line: 12W 11D 31L from 54 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Norwich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.19 PPG, Norwich on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (8W 10D 8L).
On the road, Norwich have gone 5W 6D 15L from 26 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Norwich are on 0.85 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Norwich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Norwich in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 14W 22D 18L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Norwich have gone 12W 11D 31L in their last 54 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Norwich away?
Burnley's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.31 PPG; Norwich away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Premier League, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Burnley won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Norwich specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Burnley
1
Draws
1
Norwich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Norwich?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 4, Norwich have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Norwich last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Burnley 2-1 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Norwich?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Norwich see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Norwich 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burnley) and 50% (Norwich).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 31% of games; Norwich in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Norwich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Norwich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 42% of Norwich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Norwich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burnley's recent games and 50% of Norwich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Norwich tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Norwich in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Norwich 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Norwich 1-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.54 xG and Norwich 1.02 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Norwich landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Norwich attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 49% | Draw 26% | Norwich 25%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 35%, Norwich 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Norwich's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.19 PPG, Norwich 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.