Hull City 2-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 24 as Hull City welcome Blackburn to The MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Blackburn's 2.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hull City, 1 for Blackburn and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Blackburn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Blackburn trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 32% versus Blackburn 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 28% | Blackburn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.77 xG and Blackburn 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.797 / defence 1.262 | Blackburn attack 0.860 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.186. Hull City's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Hull City games / 26 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 22% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 48%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Blackburn 2.08. Blackburn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 50% | Blackburn 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 22% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Hull City 0.77 / Blackburn 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.797 / def 1.262 | Blackburn attack 0.860 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Blackburn xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Blackburn kick off?
Hull City vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Hull City 2 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Hull City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Blackburn part of?
Hull City vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 22% chance of winning, Blackburn a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hull City and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
22%
4.60
30%
3.34
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.05
1.29
Blackburn xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.63
22%
4.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 16.5 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hull City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Hull City and 1.29 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 5D 14L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (13W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 3W 3D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.58 points per game from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.68 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Blackburn in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 13W 7D 5L in their last 25 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Blackburn away?
Blackburn's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.00 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Hull City or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Blackburn in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 5, Blackburn have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Blackburn 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Blackburn?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 42%, Blackburn 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 33% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Blackburn in 33%; Hull City have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hull City's recent matches and 58% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 33% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Blackburn tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Blackburn 2-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.77 xG and Blackburn 1.29 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Blackburn landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Blackburn attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 22% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 48%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 28%, Blackburn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not.
Blackburn's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackburn arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Hull City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.