Cardiff 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host QPR at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 3 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 1W 1D 5L from 7 Championship appearances (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
QPR — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, QPR have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour QPR — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 47% and QPR 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 53% | QPR 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.08 xG and QPR 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.651 / defence 1.563 | QPR attack 1.127 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.102. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Cardiff games / 15 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 20% | Draw 24% | QPR 56%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | QPR 1.79. The model has a clear lean to QPR (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 43% | QPR 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 20% | Draw 24% | QPR 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Cardiff 1.08 / QPR 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.651 / def 1.563 | QPR attack 1.127 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: QPR (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.94
QPR xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs QPR kick off?
Cardiff vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs QPR?
Cardiff 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Cardiff vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs QPR part of?
Cardiff vs QPR is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 20% chance of winning, QPR a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cardiff and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and QPR in?
Cardiff (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. QPR (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
20%
5.01
24%
4.24
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cardiff xG
Total xG
3.03
1.94
QPR xG
5.01
20%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
14%
6.97
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
3%
34.95
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Cardiff and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.94 for QPR, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Cardiff have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 3W 3D 9L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, QPR are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cardiff.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
On the road, QPR have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of QPR's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.73 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and QPR in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while QPR have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 0.57 PPG; QPR away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and QPR runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting QPR specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
2
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and QPR?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, QPR have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when QPR 0-0 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 43%, QPR 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Cardiff and 100% for QPR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Cardiff's games and 86% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Cardiff's matches and 100% of QPR's.
Do Cardiff and QPR tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, QPR in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.08 xG and QPR 1.94 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 1.1 short of their projected output. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.65 / defence 1.56 against QPR attack 1.13 / defence 1.53, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 20% | Draw 24% | QPR 56%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 53%, QPR 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. QPR (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.