Bournemouth 4-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 17 as Bournemouth welcome Swansea to Vitality Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Bournemouth have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's home record at Vitality Stadium: 5W 2D 1L from 8 Championship appearances (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bournemouth have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Swansea trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 44% versus Swansea 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 56% | Swansea 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.83 xG and Swansea 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.292 / defence 1.132 | Swansea attack 0.956 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.140. Bournemouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Bournemouth games / 16 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 51% | Draw 24% | Swansea 25%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Swansea 4.00. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 75% | Swansea 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 51% | Draw 24% | Swansea 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Bournemouth 1.83 / Swansea 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.292 / def 1.132 | Swansea attack 0.956 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Swansea xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Swansea kick off?
Bournemouth vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Swansea?
Bournemouth 4 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Bournemouth vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Swansea part of?
Bournemouth vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 51% chance of winning, Swansea a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bournemouth and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bournemouth and Swansea in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Swansea (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 1.29x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.23
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.07
1.23
Swansea xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.23 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 11W 4D 1L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea's form line: 6W 5D 5L from 16 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Swansea.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 2.12 PPG from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L).
On the road, Swansea have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Swansea's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.25 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Swansea in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Swansea in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 11W 4D 1L in their last 16 games (2.31 PPG), while Swansea have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Swansea away?
Bournemouth's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 2.12 PPG; Swansea away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Swansea in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Swansea runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
1
Draws
0
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Swansea?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 1, Swansea have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2022, when Swansea 3-3 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Swansea?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bournemouth at 75%, Swansea at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bournemouth and 75% for Swansea. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Bournemouth's games and 75% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bournemouth's matches and 75% of Swansea's.
Do Bournemouth and Swansea tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Swansea in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Swansea 4-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.83 xG and Swansea 1.23 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.29 / defence 1.13 against Swansea attack 0.96 / defence 1.33, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 51% | Draw 24% | Swansea 25%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Swansea 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Swansea's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.