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Draw No Bet Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest draw no bet probability — Saturday 17 September 2022

Wed 14 Thu 15 Fri 16 Sat 17 Sun 18 Mon 19 Tue 20

Draw No Bet backs a side to win, with the stake returned if the match is drawn. Our prediction model takes the side's win probability as a share of all decisive results, ignoring the draw. Only selections at 70%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Saturday 17 September 2022. The strongest reading belongs to FC Augsburg vs Bayern München (Bayern München (draw no bet)) at 93% in the Bundesliga. The shortlist runs from 93% down to 73%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

The shortlist spans nine different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 17 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 13 landed the draw no bet market — 76%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Germany Bayern München (draw no bet) 93%

Over 2.5 79% BTTS Yes 57%

Premier League · England Newcastle (draw no bet) 89%

Over 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS Yes 56%

Serie B · Italy Frosinone (draw no bet) 89%

✓ BTTS No 62% ✓ Frosinone Clean Sheet 56%

La Liga · Spain Barcelona (draw no bet) 87%

✓ Over 2.5 54% ✓ BTTS No 56%

Premier League · England Tottenham (draw no bet) 84%

✓ Over 2.5 76% ✓ BTTS Yes 67%

Süper Lig · Turkey Beşiktaş (draw no bet) 83%

✓ Over 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS Yes 58%

League One · England Bolton (draw no bet) 80%

Super League 1 · Greece Panathinaikos (draw no bet) 80%

Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 65% ✓ Panathinaikos Clean Sheet 56%

League Two · England Salford City (draw no bet) 80%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 62%

#10

Championship · England Middlesbrough (draw no bet) 79%

#11

League Two · England Sutton Utd (draw no bet) 79%

#12

Premier League · Russia CSKA Moscow (draw no bet) 79%

✓ Under 2.5 55% ✓ BTTS No 53%

#13

League One · England Exeter City (draw no bet) 78%

Over 2.5 67% BTTS Yes 63%

#14

Serie A · Italy Spezia (draw no bet) 76%

✓ Over 2.5 55% ✓ BTTS Yes 57%

#15

League Two · England Leyton Orient (draw no bet) 76%

✓ Under 2.5 56% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#16

League Two · England Northampton (draw no bet) 75%

#17

Ligue 2 · France Sochaux (draw no bet) 75%

✓ Over 2.5 55% ✓ BTTS Yes 54%

#18

2. Bundesliga · Germany SV Darmstadt 98 (draw no bet) 74%

Over 2.5 73% BTTS Yes 68%

#19

Serie B · Italy Reggina (draw no bet) 74%

Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#20

Ligue 2 · France Guingamp (draw no bet) 73%

✓ Over 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS Yes 60%

Showing top 20 fixtures by draw no bet probability (a 70% or higher draw no bet probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

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Draw No Bet — common questions

What does the Draw No Bet market mean?

Draw No Bet settles on whether a match is won by the selected side, with the stake returned if it ends level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate draw no bet probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw no bet probability shown here is the selected side's win probability divided by the chance the match has a winner at all, since a draw returns the stake. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Draw No Bet on Saturday 17 September 2022?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by FC Augsburg vs Bayern München (Bayern München (draw no bet)) at 93% draw no bet probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 70% or higher draw no bet probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these draw no bet predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.